Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 17.561201 20.028073 22.681821 25.744585 29.177522 32.902195 37.244825
2025-02-09 13.836314 17.168065 21.025629 25.804823 31.548378 38.209183 46.498177
2025-02-16 11.654397 15.274946 19.670449 25.367888 32.522317 41.170566 52.373854
2025-02-23 10.222821 14.067464 18.934939 25.499247 34.062921 44.791334 59.175235
2025-03-02 9.186749 13.189055 18.443516 25.775273 35.656649 48.416255 66.025338
2025-03-09 8.263443 12.338726 17.871276 25.835900 36.893127 51.567443 72.352753
2025-03-16 7.391353 11.453041 17.143396 25.577471 37.612850 53.993858 77.757313
2025-03-23 6.795401 10.894732 16.805881 25.803088 38.966022 57.294347 84.458658
2025-03-30 6.437465 10.647756 16.880609 26.598768 41.139672 61.804880 93.025180
2025-04-06 5.858516 10.002815 16.303840 26.370211 41.776243 64.123337 98.535431
2025-04-13 5.102055 9.004298 15.103908 25.096455 40.748716 63.933048 100.335953
2025-04-20 4.843728 8.789801 15.102870 25.664342 42.530011 67.947934 108.503400
2025-04-27 4.607588 8.599958 15.138317 26.309278 44.495331 72.379448 117.583498
2025-05-04 4.234835 8.142224 14.700661 26.155255 45.181053 74.878755 123.821602
2025-05-11 3.863635 7.650337 14.162522 25.785311 45.473775 76.746524 129.116577
2025-05-18 3.610387 7.347857 13.922257 25.893742 46.543891 79.873958 136.513411
2025-05-25 3.408820 7.122074 13.796016 26.182224 47.917062 83.531395 144.891672
2025-06-01 3.189968 6.842891 13.551522 26.240774 48.889977 86.561771 152.355850
2025-06-08 2.945517 6.490857 13.146348 25.979673 49.283438 88.631652 158.298151
2025-06-15 2.787470 6.296563 13.017924 26.208158 50.538059 92.183798 166.834791
2025-06-22 2.713368 6.267187 13.198185 27.015254 52.859402 97.637026 178.785670
2025-06-29 2.520070 5.970882 12.840961 26.783414 53.277514 99.814645 185.199095
2025-07-06 2.225757 5.430261 11.962239 25.491554 51.666756 98.363407 185.243880